What Happened
AP reported Sunday that the Trump administration's strategy against Cuba is starting to look a lot like the playbook it used on Venezuela: an oil blockade, growing U.S. military presence, federal charges and repeated threats of intervention.
The comparison is not just a pundit parlor game. AP quoted Brian Finucane of the International Crisis Group, a former State Department lawyer, saying Trump viewed the Venezuela intervention as a success and has sought to replicate that model elsewhere, including Iran. But Finucane warned that Cuba is a very different country.
One big difference: AP reported that if the United States were to depose Cuba's leadership, there is no obvious successor ready to work with Washington. That is unlike Venezuela, where U.S.-approved leadership continuity was part of the aftermath described by AP.
Why This Matters
Governments love playbooks because playbooks make chaos feel laminated. But countries are not interchangeable office printers. Cuba has its own history, political structure, security apparatus, regional dynamics and succession problems.
The danger is not just that the strategy might fail. It is that a pressure campaign built from a previous conflict's highlight reel can create new risks while pretending the hard part has already been solved.
The Dumb Part With The Copy-Paste Diplomacy
The dumb part is the template energy. Oil pressure? Check. Military presence? Check. Federal charges? Check. Intervention threats? Check. Now just change the country name in the header and hope history accepts tracked changes.
Foreign policy does not work like a microwave preset. The fact that a tactic seemed useful in one place does not mean it becomes a universal remote for every government Washington dislikes.
The Bottom Line
AP's reporting lands on the core absurdity: the administration is leaning on a familiar pressure model while experts warn Cuba is not Venezuela. That is exactly where government nonsense lives, between "this worked once" and "therefore reality owes us a sequel."
Sources
AP: Trump applies Venezuela playbook to Cuba, but results may differ